Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.8¢
- Implied chance
- 12.8%
- Return if right
- 681.3%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 781.3 shares at 12.8¢ each.
YES wins: $781.25 back, a profit of $681.25. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $687.40.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.4¢
- Implied chance
- 87.4%
- Return if right
- 14.4%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 114.4 shares at 87.4¢ each.
NO wins: $114.42 back, a profit of $14.42. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 08:33 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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