Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 73%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
YES wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $36.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 45.0¢
- Implied chance
- 45.0%
- Return if right
- 122.2%
- Spread cost
- 55%
If you put in $100
You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.
NO wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $148.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $270.37.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Donald Tusk73.0%
- António Costa81.5%
- Jared Kushner84.5%
- Steve Witkoff82.0%
- Keith Kellogg82.5%
- Mark Rutte68.5%
Latest: Aug 11, 09:27 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine’s 40-day campaign has not brought the war closer to an endAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine used North Korean missiles, claims Zelenskyy – Europe liveThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Russian attacks kill six in Ukraine’s ZaporizhzhiaAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Inside a secret launch site for Ukraine’s deep-strike dronesAl Jazeera · 10h ago
- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 14h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 18h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
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