Will Democrats win the Texas and Michigan Senate seats, and Republicans win Maine?

Q: Will Democrats win the Texas and Michigan Senate seats, and Republicans win Maine?

Prediction markets currently price this at 15%. A YES share costs 15.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 562.3% over 1.3mo.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine$654 liquidity$116 volumecloses 1.3mo

PoliticselectionKen PaxtonUS Electionmike rogersMaine Senate

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 15.1¢
Implied chance: 15.1%
Return if right: 562.3%
Spread cost: 35%

If you put in $100

You get 662.3 shares at 15.1¢ each.

YES wins: $662.25 back, a profit of $562.25. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $308.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $870.87.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.5¢
Implied chance: 94.5%
Return if right: 5.8%
Spread cost: 49%

If you put in $100

You get 105.8 shares at 94.5¢ each.

NO wins: $105.82 back, a profit of $5.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.48.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 07:24 AM2 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.