Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
YES wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $106.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 52.0¢
- Implied chance
- 52.0%
- Return if right
- 92.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.
NO wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $94.17.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 03:53 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.