Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 68.0¢
- Implied chance
- 68.0%
- Return if right
- 47.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.
NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 08:37 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- What do Clacton voters want from their next MP?BBC Politics · 2d ago
- Badenoch pens letter to Clacton ahead of by-electionBBC Politics · 3d ago
- The serial candidates standing against Farage in the Clacton by-electionBBC Politics · 4d ago
- No joke: Britain might be about to elect 'novelty' candidate Count BinfaceThe Hill · 4d ago
- Ballot paper for Clacton by-election is longest in British electoral historyBBC Politics · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parlia…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Other outcomes in Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
- Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?