Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.8¢
- Implied chance
- 3.8%
- Return if right
- 2531.6%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2631.6 shares at 3.8¢ each.
YES wins: $2631.58 back, a profit of $2531.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $35.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $2566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.3¢
- Implied chance
- 96.3%
- Return if right
- 3.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 103.8 shares at 96.3¢ each.
NO wins: $103.84 back, a profit of $3.84. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Inside Taiwan's drills for a potential Chinese invasionCBS News · 1h ago
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- Why Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Could Be a Top AI Infrastructure WinnerYahoo Finance · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.