Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $31.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $2431.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.1¢
- Implied chance
- 96.1%
- Return if right
- 4.1%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 104.1 shares at 96.1¢ each.
NO wins: $104.06 back, a profit of $4.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Rep. John Moolenaar says U.S. has "responsibility to help Taiwan defend itself" before Xi visitCBS News · 14h ago
- Rubio: Taiwan arms sales constrained by US needs, industrial baseThe Hill · 20h ago
- From cybersecurity to AI to Taiwan, what's at stake in Trump's summit with XiNPR · 20h ago
- McConnell leads 4 GOP senators in calling for Trump to release Taiwan arms fundingThe Hill · 22h ago
- Trump-Xi meeting comes amid tensions on Iran, Taiwan and trade: What to knowABC News · 1d ago
- Trump needs to be bold, direct with Xi over Taiwan disputeThe Hill · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.