Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.2¢
- Implied chance
- 2.2%
- Return if right
- 4445.5%
- Spread cost
- 44%
If you put in $100
You get 4545.5 shares at 2.2¢ each.
YES wins: $4545.45 back, a profit of $4445.45. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3454.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $7900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 76%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 01:40 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- New Zealand Slaps New Sanctions Against Russia After US MoveBloomberg · 3d ago
- New Zealand is Racing to Vaccinate Its Endangered Birds Against Bird FluThe New York Times · 5d ago
- New Zealand capital delights in rare snowfall as southern city residents ski down world’s steepest streetThe Guardian · 6d ago
- Nine Lives, the feral cat that terrorised New Zealand’s rare ducks, is caught after three yearsThe Guardian · 6d ago
- New Zealand Has Ended Greyhound Racing. Now It Has to Manage the Aftermath.The New York Times · 6d ago
- New Zealand legislation recognising English an official language ridiculed as ‘pathetic’The Guardian · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zeala…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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