Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $222.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $44.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:11 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- New Zealand cruise to victory over Scotland in WXVBBC Sport · 5d ago
- New Zealand Clears Path for Free-Trade Agreement With IndiaBloomberg · 9d ago
- New Zealand Dairy Farmers Face Profit Squeeze as El Niño LoomsBloomberg · 9d ago
- New Zealand’s World-Beating Sovereign Wealth Fund Returns 14.2%Bloomberg · 9d ago
- Funds Bet New Zealand Bonds Will Beat Global Peers on Slow HikesBloomberg · 11d ago
- South Africa cap series victory over New Zealand with win in BaltimoreBBC Sport · 12d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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