Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Q: Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 33233.3% over 2.4y.

Next Prime Minister of Italy?$11k liquidity$2k volumecloses 2.4y

PoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsPMMeloniMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.3¢
Implied chance: 0.3%
Return if right: 33233.3%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.

YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.8¢
Implied chance: 99.8%
Return if right: 0.2%
Spread cost: 20%

If you put in $100

You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.

NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 07:21 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.