Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $86.92.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 48.0¢
- Implied chance
- 48.0%
- Return if right
- 108.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.
NO wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $115.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 02:14 AM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- 'Italian opposition fragmented: No alternative leader, no other possible leader than Giorgia Meloni'France 24 · 20d ago
- Stability or fiasco? Giorgia Meloni becomes longest-serving Italian PMFrance 24 · 21d ago
- Italy weighs the results as Giorgia Meloni’s government sets a longevity recordFrance 24 · 21d ago
- Giorgia Meloni government becomes Italy's longest-lasting since World War IIFrance 24 · 21d ago
- Talking With Giorgia MeloniThe New York Times · 23d ago
- Giorgia Meloni Has a Lot to Say: The TakeawaysThe New York Times · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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