Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Q: Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Prediction markets currently price this at 24%. A YES share costs 24.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 313.2% over 9.2mo.

Next Senate Majority Leader?$16k liquidity$4k volumecloses 9.2mo

SenateElectionsMidtermsTrumpUS ElectionPolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 24.2¢
Implied chance: 24.2%
Return if right: 313.2%
Spread cost: 43%

If you put in $100

You get 413.2 shares at 24.2¢ each.

YES wins: $413.22 back, a profit of $313.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $238.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $551.47.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 93.5¢
Implied chance: 93.5%
Return if right: 7.0%
Spread cost: 62%

If you put in $100

You get 107.0 shares at 93.5¢ each.

NO wins: $106.95 back, a profit of $6.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.13.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 08:08 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.