Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Thailand’s 0% crypto tax. Bitcoin Red Team forced to use Chinese AI: Asia ExpressCointelegraph · 2h ago
- Blockstream Debuts Swaps, Allowing Bitcoiners to Move Between Lightning and Main Network With EaseBitcoin Magazine · 6h ago
- Trump Media’s bitcoin holdings shrink as crypto losses hit $361 millionCoinDesk · 6h ago
- Bitcoin ATMs Pulled in Australia as Regulators Signal Wider CrackdownDecrypt · 7h ago
- ETFs Look Safer After Bitcoin Hack, Small Caps | ETF IQ 8/10/2026Bloomberg · 7h ago
- BTCPay Server Offers a 3 Bitcoin Bounty for Recovery of Stolen Funds After Wallet ExploitBitcoin Magazine · 7h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.