Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- A rare CME shift: Hedge funds abandon structural shorts to bet on a bitcoin rallyCoinDesk · 35m ago
- This bitcoin miner rejected BIP-110 despite mining through a pool that supported itCoinDesk · 3h ago
- Bitcoin Red Team founder turns to Chinese AI: ‘It absolutely guts me’Cointelegraph · 4h ago
- Bitcoin tops $65,000 with U.S. inflation data due this weekCoinDesk · 5h ago
- Australia orders Cryptolink Bitcoin ATMs offline over ‘basic reporting’ failuresCointelegraph · 5h ago
- Trump Says 'Crypto Is a Big Deal, People Are Paying With Bitcoin'Yahoo Finance · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.