Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.5¢
- Implied chance
- 2.5%
- Return if right
- 3900.0%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 4000.0 shares at 2.5¢ each.
YES wins: $4000.00 back, a profit of $3900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3142.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $7042.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 79%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.42.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Bernard Cazeneuve0.7%
- Boris Vallaud37.5%
- Raphael Glucksmann36.0%
- Olivier Faure17.5%
- Segolene Royal6.7%
- Philippe Brun5.9%
Latest: Aug 10, 05:27 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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- Johnson turns Democrats’ socialist civil war into new weapon for midtermsFox News · 4h ago
- Can Democrats still win if socialists take over their party?The Hill · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the Socialist Party nomination to…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Other outcomes in Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
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- Will Jérôme Guedj win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- Will Carole Delga win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?