Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.4¢
- Implied chance
- 1.4%
- Return if right
- 7042.9%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 7142.9 shares at 1.4¢ each.
YES wins: $7142.86 back, a profit of $7042.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5357.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $12400.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 75%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 07:29 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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- Let's fix healthcare costs before the socialists try to do itThe Hill · 4h ago
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- 'Castro's playbook': Ex-AG warns dozens of congressional bills are pushing socialist ideasFox News · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
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