Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $528.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $1539.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 49%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 23, 02:08 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- American Culture Quiz: Test yourself on presidential portrayals and summer sipsFox News · 5h ago
- Presidential campaign heats up in Brazil, as Lula and F. Bolsonaro hold rival ralliesFrance 24 · 5h ago
- Bangladesh holds presidential election in first contested vote in 35 yearsAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- Fractured opposition battles Nigeria's Tinubu as presidential campaign beginsFrance 24 · 4d ago
- Ukraine’s new defence minister takes office as popular predecessor calls for presidential voteFrance 24 · 4d ago
- Zelensky fires top presidential aide after anti-graft agencies reveal corruption probeFrance 24 · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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