Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.4¢
- Implied chance
- 1.4%
- Return if right
- 7042.9%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 7142.9 shares at 1.4¢ each.
YES wins: $7142.86 back, a profit of $7042.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4621.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $11664.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 65%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 03:24 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israeli forces kill one in Gaza as another body recovered from rubbleAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- Israeli settler attacks rise as West Bank residents lose landAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Lebanese soldiers injured while Israeli troops intrude on southern townAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Israeli troops infiltrate Lebanese army-held village and build roadblock, mayor saysFrance 24 · 2d ago
- Medics among six Palestinians injured in Israeli attacks across West BankAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- Iran Seeks to Bar US, Israeli Ships from Hormuz; OpenAI's Doughnut-Like Device | The Pulse 8/7/2026Bloomberg · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in How many Israeli elections before government formed?
- Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
- Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
- Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?
- Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
- Will exactly 4 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?