Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

Q: Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 33233.3% over 1.1mo.

How many Israeli elections before government formed?$11k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.1mo

IsraelPoliticsElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.3¢
Implied chance: 0.3%
Return if right: 33233.3%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.

YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $49900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.20.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 12:24 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.