Will Andy Burnham visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Andy Burnham visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 87%. A YES share costs 87.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 14.9% over 4.7mo.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?$673 liquidity$3k volumecloses 4.7mo

UkraineGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 87.0¢
Implied chance: 87.0%
Return if right: 14.9%
Spread cost: 61%

If you put in $100

You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.

YES wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $37.93.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 42.0¢
Implied chance: 42.0%
Return if right: 138.1%
Spread cost: 48%

If you put in $100

You get 238.1 shares at 42.0¢ each.

NO wins: $238.10 back, a profit of $138.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $125.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $263.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:10 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Andy Burnham visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.