Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.8¢
- Implied chance
- 1.8%
- Return if right
- 5455.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 5555.6 shares at 1.8¢ each.
YES wins: $5555.56 back, a profit of $5455.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $694.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $6150.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.6¢
- Implied chance
- 98.6%
- Return if right
- 1.4%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 101.4 shares at 98.6¢ each.
NO wins: $101.42 back, a profit of $1.42. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 09:00 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- American Airlines CEO sends strong warning about airfare pricesYahoo Finance · 5d ago
- Mark Cuban spent $125,000 on a lifetime American Airlines pass after a drunk dial — here's why the math workedYahoo Finance · 5d ago
- American Airlines CEO delivers stark warning on rising fuel costsYahoo Finance · 6d ago
- American Airlines Sees Strong Demand, but Fuel Spike Threatens Profit OutlookYahoo Finance · 8d ago
- Female passenger undresses on American Airlines flight, engages in 'indecent acts,' crew reportsFox News · 11d ago
- American Airlines (AAL) Puts $1,000 Behind its Workers’ KidsYahoo Finance · 13d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.