Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.3¢
- Implied chance
- 3.3%
- Return if right
- 2930.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 3030.3 shares at 3.3¢ each.
YES wins: $3030.30 back, a profit of $2930.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $46.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $2976.92.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 06:34 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- If Amazon doesn’t know how to eliminate carbon emissions, then who does?TechCrunch · 1d ago
- Amazon's AWS Backlog Climbed to $496 Billion as Its Cloud Margin Reached 39%. The Stock Is Primed to Skyrocket as a Result.Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- What Are Amazon Stock Bears Missing?Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- SpaceX vs Amazon: Which Is the Better Stock to Own Over the Next 10 YearsYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Medicube is having a secret sale on Amazon with skin care up to 67% offNBC News · 1d ago
- Shopify Sinks 5%, Meta Ticks Up as Muse Deal Rally Unwinds; Amazon SlipsYahoo Finance · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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