Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1150.0% over 3.2mo.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?$8k liquidity$5k volumecloses 3.2mo

AIBusinessTechRecurring

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.0¢
Implied chance: 8.0%
Return if right: 1150.0%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 93.0¢
Implied chance: 93.0%
Return if right: 7.5%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 11:07 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.