Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Q: Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 44%. A YES share costs 44.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 127.3% over 4.7mo.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?$2k liquidity$3k volumecloses 4.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 44.0¢
Implied chance: 44.0%
Return if right: 127.3%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.

YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $143.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 62.0¢
Implied chance: 62.0%
Return if right: 61.3%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.

NO wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $69.49.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:25 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.