Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Q: Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 43%. A YES share costs 43.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 132.6% over 4.7mo.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?$2k liquidity$3k volumecloses 4.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 43.0¢
Implied chance: 43.0%
Return if right: 132.6%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 232.6 shares at 43.0¢ each.

YES wins: $232.56 back, a profit of $132.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $143.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 61.0¢
Implied chance: 61.0%
Return if right: 63.9%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 163.9 shares at 61.0¢ each.

NO wins: $163.93 back, a profit of $63.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $69.49.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 01:41 AM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.