Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?

Q: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?

Prediction markets currently price this at 14%. A YES share costs 14.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 614.3% over 1.5y.

South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner$9k liquidity$95 volumecloses 1.5y

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesUS Electionprimary electionsDemocratic Primary

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 14.0¢
Implied chance: 14.0%
Return if right: 614.3%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.

YES wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $119.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $733.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 90.0¢
Implied chance: 90.0%
Return if right: 11.1%
Spread cost: 19%

If you put in $100

You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.

NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:24 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.