Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $428.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez6.5%
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Mark Kelly10.5%
- Kamala Harris27.0%
- Cory Booker16.4%
- Raphael Warnock5.5%
Latest: Sep 24, 03:20 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Beshear-Moore ticket? Democratic presidential hopefuls are pairing upThe Hill · 5h ago
- A Corruption Scandal Is Reshaping Brazil’s Presidential ElectionThe New York Times · 6h ago
- Trump to greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews, a presidential move not seen since 1962CBS News · 18h ago
- GOP hold on South Carolina’s Senate seat is slippingThe Washington Post · 23h ago
- Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward DemocratsThe Hill · 1d ago
- AOC says she'll decide on presidential run after midtermsCBS News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democra…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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