Will Ainārs Šlesers be the next Prime Minister of Latvia?

Q: Will Ainārs Šlesers be the next Prime Minister of Latvia?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2757.1% over 10d.

Next Prime Minister of Latvia?$1k liquidity$315 volumecloses 10d

WorldLatviaPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.5¢
Implied chance: 3.5%
Return if right: 2757.1%
Spread cost: 44%

If you put in $100

You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.

YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2142.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $4900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.5¢
Implied chance: 99.5%
Return if right: 0.5%
Spread cost: 75%

If you put in $100

You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.

NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.04.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 03:45 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.