Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.6¢
- Implied chance
- 13.6%
- Return if right
- 635.3%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 735.3 shares at 13.6¢ each.
YES wins: $735.29 back, a profit of $635.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $690.51.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.3¢
- Implied chance
- 88.3%
- Return if right
- 13.3%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 113.3 shares at 88.3¢ each.
NO wins: $113.25 back, a profit of $13.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 09:29 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- German trade deficit with China grows as Beijing relies less on European industryYahoo Finance · 16h ago
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- Germany news: German kidnapped in Niger released — AlgeriaDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Drones spotted over German military base amid uptick in similar incidentsCBS News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in S…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.