Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 62.0¢
- Implied chance
- 62.0%
- Return if right
- 61.3%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.
YES wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $73.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 47.0¢
- Implied chance
- 47.0%
- Return if right
- 112.8%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.
NO wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $135.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:19 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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