Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.0¢
- Implied chance
- 2.0%
- Return if right
- 4900.0%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 5000.0 shares at 2.0¢ each.
YES wins: $5000.00 back, a profit of $4900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1250.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $6150.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 06:23 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?