US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.2¢
- Implied chance
- 4.2%
- Return if right
- 2281.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.
YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $150.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $2431.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.3¢
- Implied chance
- 96.3%
- Return if right
- 3.8%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 103.8 shares at 96.3¢ each.
NO wins: $103.84 back, a profit of $3.84. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.27 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iranian protesters feel Trump didn't follow through on promises, New York Times reportsCBS News · 1h ago
- Iranian hackers attacked our water systems. Here are 5 things our leaders need to do nowFox News · 11h ago
- Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 16h ago
- Iranian leaders demand U.S. pay for war damage or will keep Strait of Hormuz closedCBS News · 19h ago
- Iranian Demands Disrupt Trump’s Plan to End the WarYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- ‘The wealthy poor’: Soaring food prices hurt Iranian familiesAl Jazeera · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.