Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.7¢
- Implied chance
- 3.7%
- Return if right
- 2602.7%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 2702.7 shares at 3.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2702.70 back, a profit of $2602.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $282.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $2885.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 2h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on Russian oil-refining city kills 12 peopleFrance 24 · 4h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- Ukraine: Russian bombs injure five civilians in Sumy, authorities sayFrance 24 · 7h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 7h ago
- ‘Like the movies’: How Ukraine’s ground robots are changing rules of warAl Jazeera · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.