Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.5¢
- Implied chance
- 4.5%
- Return if right
- 2122.2%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $594.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $2716.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia attacks Ukraine while Zelenskyy speaks at UNGAAl Jazeera · 29m ago
- Ukraine: Zelensky says Putin 'patient zero' for spreading warFrance 24 · 57m ago
- Russian attacks kill eight people across Ukraine as US steps up diplomacyAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Zelenskyy says Ukraine sent two North Korean POWs to South KoreaAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- The long-range drone war: Ukraine and Russia scramble for supremacy in the skiesThe Guardian · 8h ago
- Ukraine Sent Two North Korean P.O.W.s to South Korea, Zelensky SaysThe New York Times · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.