Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.7¢
- Implied chance
- 3.7%
- Return if right
- 2602.7%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 2702.7 shares at 3.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2702.70 back, a profit of $2602.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $282.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $2885.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Like the movies’: How Ukraine’s ground robots are changing rules of warAl Jazeera · 36m ago
- Ukraine launches drone attack on Russian oil refining facilities – Europe liveThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Moscow, Kyiv assassins hunt weapons bosses as Ukraine war spills beyond the battlefieldFox News · 12h ago
- Russia and Ukraine exchange deadly overnight strikesFrance 24 · 20h ago
- Ukraine and Russia exchange attacks as Kyiv buys new ATACMSDeutsche Welle · 22h ago
- Russian forces kill several in Ukraine, launch ‘brutal’ attack in OdesaAl Jazeera · 23h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.