Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $288.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 8h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on Russian oil-refining city kills 12 peopleFrance 24 · 10h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Ukraine: Russian bombs injure five civilians in Sumy, authorities sayFrance 24 · 13h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 14h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.