Prediction markets currently price this at 95%. A YES share costs 95.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 5.3% over 5d.

O/U 1.5 Rounds

UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$210 liquidity$0 volumecloses 5d

SportsUFCGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 95.0¢
Implied chance: 95.0%
Return if right: 5.3%
Spread cost: 85%

If you put in $100

You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.

YES wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $29.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.14.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 47.0¢
Implied chance: 47.0%
Return if right: 112.8%
Spread cost: 60%

If you put in $100

You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.

NO wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $171.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $284.62.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 04:48 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “O/U 1.5 Rounds”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. "Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Source: https://www.ufc.com/events