Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 21.0¢
- Implied chance
- 21.0%
- Return if right
- 376.2%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 476.2 shares at 21.0¢ each.
YES wins: $476.19 back, a profit of $376.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $64.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- After Supreme Court Losses, Trump Keeps PushingThe New York Times · 28m ago
- How Supreme Court Oral Arguments Have Transformed Since Covid-Era PrecautionsThe New York Times · 2h ago
- Blockchain Association backs Custodia’s Supreme Court bid over Fed master account accessThe Block · 10h ago
- Will Trump's Supreme Court losses stop his agenda?The Hill · 1d ago
- Trump pushes boundaries of Supreme Court lossesThe Hill · 1d ago
- Brazil’s Supreme Court to weigh cases that could weaken Amazon protectionsAl Jazeera · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.