Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.7¢
- Implied chance
- 5.7%
- Return if right
- 1654.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 1754.4 shares at 5.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1754.39 back, a profit of $1654.39. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $31.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1685.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.5¢
- Implied chance
- 94.5%
- Return if right
- 5.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 105.8 shares at 94.5¢ each.
NO wins: $105.82 back, a profit of $5.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s NizhnekamskAl Jazeera · 48m ago
- Ukrainian strikes 750 miles inside Russia kill at least 13, authorities sayCBS News · 1h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 2h ago
- Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills 13 Deep Inside RussiaThe New York Times · 2h ago
- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian strike on Russia's Tatarstan region, officials sayBBC News · 3h ago
- Ukrainian drone attack kills at least 12 in central RussiaDeutsche Welle · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution. The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes. If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.