Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.3¢
- Implied chance
- 4.3%
- Return if right
- 2225.6%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 2325.6 shares at 4.3¢ each.
YES wins: $2325.58 back, a profit of $2225.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $341.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $2566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukrainian drone attack kills at least 12 in central RussiaDeutsche Welle · 16m ago
- Hundreds of Ukrainian drones target Russia in deadly overnight strikesFrance 24 · 2h ago
- Syria says deal agreed with Russia on future of military basesDeutsche Welle · 15h ago
- Senate votes to sanction Russia after late Sen. Lindsey Graham's push for itCBS News · 16h ago
- Syria, Russia agree to end military use of key Mediterranean basesFrance 24 · 17h ago
- North Korea may deploy up to 50,000 troops to Russia, Zelensky claimsFrance 24 · 18h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution. The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes. If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.