Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 8, 12:01 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Saudi-Led Forces Claim Ground Advances Against Houthis in YemenBloomberg · 2h ago
- 3 Killed and Dozens Injured in Attacks on Saudi Airports, as Houthis Claim StrikesThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Houthi forces appear to make slow advance in south-west YemenThe Guardian · 4h ago
- Syria considering sending troops to Yemen to fight HouthisAxios · 4h ago
- Three killed, 36 injured in Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, Riyadh saysAl Jazeera · 6h ago
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey: Could the Mecca defense pact become a game changer in the war against the Houthis in Yemen?Deutsche Welle · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.