Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.0¢
- Implied chance
- 27.0%
- Return if right
- 270.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 370.4 shares at 27.0¢ each.
YES wins: $370.37 back, a profit of $270.37. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $284.62.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 75.0¢
- Implied chance
- 75.0%
- Return if right
- 33.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.
NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.14.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Oil prices jump after Yemen’s Houthis claim attacks on Saudi facilitiesAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Saudi Arabia intercepts wave of Houthi missiles as oil climbs to one-week highThe Guardian · 3h ago
- Saudi reports fresh Houthi attacks as France pledges to defend key oil portFrance 24 · 6h ago
- Saudi foreign minister warns Houthi threat goes global as Trump holds fireFox News · 9h ago
- Saudi Says International Community Must Deal With Houthi ThreatBloomberg · 12h ago
- Houthi advances in Yemen drive displacement, deepen humanitarian crisisDeutsche Welle · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.