NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.6¢
- Implied chance
- 3.6%
- Return if right
- 2677.8%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 2777.8 shares at 3.6¢ each.
YES wins: $2777.78 back, a profit of $2677.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $448.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $3125.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 42m ago
- Russia bars only anti-war party 'Yabloko' from September parliamentary electionsFrance 24 · 3h ago
- Russia bars only anti-war party from electionsFrance 24 · 3h ago
- ‘They need each other’: What’s behind the new Syria-Russia accord?Al Jazeera · 4h ago
- US intelligence ‘believes Russia was behind Leipzig airport drone bomb’The Guardian · 5h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 5h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.