NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 21.0¢
- Implied chance
- 21.0%
- Return if right
- 376.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 476.2 shares at 21.0¢ each.
YES wins: $476.19 back, a profit of $376.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $387.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 80.0¢
- Implied chance
- 80.0%
- Return if right
- 25.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 125.0 shares at 80.0¢ each.
NO wins: $125.00 back, a profit of $25.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $25.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia could attack a Nato country within months, Danish intelligence saysThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Penguins forward Andrei Kuzmenko's father killed in bear attack on remote Russia fishing tripFox News · 3h ago
- Senate Republican: Iranian leaders 'part of a colony of reptiles' that also includes China, Russia, North KoreaThe Hill · 4h ago
- Russia attacks Ukraine while Zelenskyy speaks at UNGAAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Europe Warns of Russia’s Hybrid Attacks but Struggles to Counter ThemThe New York Times · 9h ago
- How Russia Evades SanctionsThe New York Times · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.