Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.1¢
- Implied chance
- 9.1%
- Return if right
- 998.9%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 1098.9 shares at 9.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1098.90 back, a profit of $998.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $1011.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.1¢
- Implied chance
- 91.1%
- Return if right
- 9.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 109.8 shares at 91.1¢ each.
NO wins: $109.77 back, a profit of $9.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Inside the War on Hezbollah’s FinancesThe New York Times · 2d ago
- Middle East: Israel strikes southern Lebanon, accuses Hezbollah of 'blatant' ceasefire violationDeutsche Welle · 5d ago
- Israel Strikes Lebanon After Accusing Hezbollah of Cease-Fire ViolationThe New York Times · 5d ago
- Lebanon and Israel still split over disarming Hezbollah at Rome talksAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Middle East: Hezbollah condemns latest Israel-Lebanon talksDeutsche Welle · 6d ago
- Hezbollah rejects fresh round of talks between Lebanon and IsraelFrance 24 · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.