Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.7¢
- Implied chance
- 9.7%
- Return if right
- 930.9%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 1030.9 shares at 9.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1030.93 back, a profit of $930.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $92.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1023.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.9¢
- Implied chance
- 91.9%
- Return if right
- 8.8%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 108.8 shares at 91.9¢ each.
NO wins: $108.81 back, a profit of $8.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iran's 'new Hezbollah:' How powerful are the Houthis now?Deutsche Welle · 6d ago
- 'Stalemate' in Lebanon: Hezbollah justifies weapons, citing Israeli occupation and ongoing attacksFrance 24 · 7d ago
- Lebanon: Tremor recorded as Israel says destroyed key Hezbollah tunnelsFrance 24 · 13d ago
- Israel Destroys Underground Hezbollah Base in Southern LebanonThe New York Times · 14d ago
- Israel says it has destroyed major underground Hezbollah baseBBC News · 14d ago
- Israel says destroys Hezbollah tunnels as explosions triggers tremorFrance 24 · 14d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.