Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $238.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness makes $400M private betYahoo Finance · 4d ago
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI Hedge Fund Just Blew Up, and It Highlights an Endemic Problem for Wall StreetYahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Leopold Aschenbrenner’s $20 Billion AI Hedge Fund Imploded. Here’s How It’s Still Up 80% This YearYahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Leopold Aschenbrenner was up 439% — then 4x leverage wiped out 67% of his $45B AI hedge fund in one monthYahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Leopold Aschenbrenner just learned Wall Street's oldest lesson: Chart of the DayYahoo Finance · 8d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.