Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $197.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $2097.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.9¢
- Implied chance
- 95.9%
- Return if right
- 4.3%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 104.3 shares at 95.9¢ each.
NO wins: $104.28 back, a profit of $4.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 7, 09:45 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness buying options after collapseYahoo Finance · 26d ago
- Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI Fund Was Forced to Sell. Were Micron and SanDisk Wrong—or Just the Leverage?Yahoo Finance · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.