Set Handicap: Lars Wagenaar (-1.5) vs Tom Zeuch (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Lars Wagenaar (-1.5) vs Tom Zeuch (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 98%. A YES share costs 98.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2.0% over 5d.

M15 Forbach: Tom Zeuch vs Lars Wagenaar$10 liquidity$0 volumecloses 5d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 98%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

YES wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $86.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $88.68.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 92.0¢
Implied chance: 92.0%
Return if right: 8.7%
Spread cost: 92%

If you put in $100

You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.

NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $104.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $112.77.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 02:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Lars Wagenaar and Tom Zeuch in the M15 Forbach, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Lars Wagenaar" if Lars Wagenaar wins by 2 or more sets than Tom Zeuch, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tom Zeuch." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Lars Wagenaar can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tom Zeuch." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/