Set 1 Winner: Tom Zeuch vs Lars Wagenaar

Q: Set 1 Winner: Tom Zeuch vs Lars Wagenaar

Prediction markets currently price this at 83%. A YES share costs 83.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 20.5% over 5d.

M15 Forbach: Tom Zeuch vs Lars Wagenaar$112 liquidity$0 volumecloses 5d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 83.0¢
Implied chance: 83.0%
Return if right: 20.5%
Spread cost: 84%

If you put in $100

You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.

YES wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $109.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.0¢
Implied chance: 96.0%
Return if right: 4.2%
Spread cost: 95%

If you put in $100

You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.

NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $72.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 02:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Tom Zeuch vs Lars Wagenaar”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Tom Zeuch and Lars Wagenaar in the M15 Forbach, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Tom Zeuch” if Tom Zeuch wins the first set. It will resolve to “Lars Wagenaar” if Lars Wagenaar wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/