Set Handicap: Castelnuovo (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Castelnuovo (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 48%. A YES share costs 48.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 108.3% over 7d.

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard: Luca Castelnuovo vs Kuan Shou Chen$654 liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 48.0¢
Implied chance: 48.0%
Return if right: 108.3%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.

YES wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $32.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $140.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 65.0¢
Implied chance: 65.0%
Return if right: 53.8%
Spread cost: 24%

If you put in $100

You get 153.8 shares at 65.0¢ each.

NO wins: $153.85 back, a profit of $53.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $70.94.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 28, 08:21 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Kuan Shou Chen in the ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard, originally scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Castelnuovo" if Luca Castelnuovo wins by 2 or more sets than Kuan Shou Chen, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Chen." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Luca Castelnuovo can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Chen." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/